During my days as a student, once I got into an argument with my respected teacher and expert in US policy. While ambitious, I was persistent that US was no longer the only super power in terms of military, but finally he gave his ace card by stating that till date, US has the only global reach, can strike and reach every corner, and above all they have the will to flex it. Not long ago another debate surprised me.
Suddenly West was praising ISI professionalism but yet doubted its intentions, Gen Pasha surpassed Kiyani and Obama in “Times” listing of the most influential in 2011 with Pakistan hardly knowing his achievement at the first place, and so on. It seems like drama but in reality, the two heavy weight had locked themselves in Afghanistan and Pakistan tribal areas since 9/11 and as US was gearing up for an exit, we all knew something was coming.
So let’s start with post 2/5 scenario. Bin Laden gone as if he was never there, while Pakistani establishment digging themselves under sand to hide from the looming storm over Islamabad.
US helicopters, Special Forces and the whole operation has made Pakistan a “Shooting Gallery” of many theories like how was he there? Who place him at such an awkward place? Any special reason for ISI shying away from this compound since 2009? US raid under GHQ nose and the jammer theory and lord knows what not.
After clearing this fog I have reached a conclusion, which I won’t press much because after 48 hours a simple brain like me has ended up in multiple territories.
First Theory: Osama has proved a perfect “scape goat” when the time came for both us and Americans. Graceful departure, growing economic worries and unmanageable campaign always meant that US will hang to anything which can bring team Obama out of Afghanistan, especially close to elections.
For Pakistan the whole episode since 9/11 had surpassed their wildest dream and they too wanted US to leave Afghanistan friendly toward Pakistan.
In this case, both parties like professional businessman have invested rightly on OBL and he has repaid them well. Obama’s response by mentioning Pakistan cooperation makes it’s a favourable version. But the sorry faces on Pakistan side have somehow over shadowed my belief in this theory.
(Final Verdict …. This theory stands true if in coming months Pakistan is not pushed to the wall by West, especially media and Uncle Sam departs without any real drama from Afghanistan)
Second Theory: In this scenario, US and the West was always right when they said ISI was playing a double game. OBL was the trophy we had and there should not be any surprise on US side as well. After all, the CIA was doing the same thing in Pakistan arming fake Talibs and BLA separatist through men like Davis. In Afghanistan the free hands to Indians was also in line with this US-CIA “Double Game”. And keeping men like OBL is nothing new in the book of conquest. US has kept Saddam through its “MID EAST OIL HONEY MOON” one the PM or our President because its well-known that it’s out of their calibre to handle that simple to abandon the second theory here.
It also means that CIA has finally broken ISI inner ring, the invincibility and the legendary tales attached to it have been shattered and that night belonged to them. Our champs kept sleeping, conspiring, selling and buying political loyalties while Team Obama won peace for America and the west and so on. Players like Davis did the job for them and gave them the only ace thier competitor had….. Bravo.
(Final Verdict…. This theory is practical and logical, but its authenticity will be confirmed by the situation itself. The US will drag Pakistan military to the edge, cross border raids, more appeasement, US direct intervention and much more GOD forbid).
In case the second theory stands correct, the two said boys in uniform with recent extensions must have resigned. No word on their integrity, but certainly they have let everyone down. The whole episode is irreversible and for that one has to take the blame. I never mentioned later sacrificed him as he was never there, having said this, it’s not this. Let them stay for five years which has been their destiny while policies are made on decade bases. The Generals in case they stay after this condition, have one option and that is “to be or not to be”. Make us a banana nuke powers in history or at least takes this ship down as a captain who fought the storm till the end….. Of course no third option any more sir!!!!!