MQM in this election has secured (according to the so far unofficial results) 19 seats in the NA. While this has made it the fourth largest party in the house, unfortunately for MQM, it is in an even worse position than PML-Q.
PML-Q being the open opponent of both PPP and PML-N is all set to be the major opposition party. It cannot and, most likely, will not make government with PML-N or PPP, nor can it make govt with the other forces leaving the two front runners aside.
However, incase of MQM, both PML-N and PPP have vowed not to make coallition with MQM in the APC. ANP is also in a head to head to collision with it since 12th may incidents. MMA, with whatever little strength they have in assembly, is an ideological opponent of MQM who has always been a hard liner against Madressahs and Political Mullahs.
Now the leadership of MQM must be wondering what the next NA has in store for the party. Will it have to reverse its stance against PML-N and PPP as well as ANP which it has been maintaining for the last 7 years (remember Altaf Hussain has always criticised both major political parties for robbing the country and supporting Feudals in their parties.)
Moreover, after the elections of 2002, Altaf Hussain had demanded an apology from Late Benazir on the extrajudicial killings in Karachi during her last tenure. This demand was rejected by PPP as a result of which PPP-MQM govt could not be formed in Sind. So will MQM drop its charge against PPP of operation and extra judicial killings of Karachiites? If yes, then on what moral grounds?
Secondly, Nawaz Sharif was the main culprit who started the operation clean up in Karachi/Hyderabad and created MQM-Haqiqi. It was under his rule when Sind government was dismissed and governor rule was imposed in the province. So will MQM ignore all these actions of Nawaz Sharif and join hands with PML-N? Again, if yes, then on what moral grounds?
MQM is also in a head-to-head collision with ANP since 12th May 2007. It also blamed ANP for runining property of the people of Karachi after the 27th December incidient. So will MQM join hands with ANP who is supposedly an enemy of Karachi and its progress? If yes, then on what moral grounds?
Now, MQM has all the moral reasons to sit in opposition. And, it has absolutely no moral/ethical reason to get into a coalition government with any front runner party. However, MQM in opposition means yet another opperation in Karachi and further blood shed in urban Sind. Moreover, with the media, as it has grown lately, it will become extremely difficult for MQM to fight its case at international front. (The exposure that it got on 12th May is still taking its toll) therefore if there is an operation in Urban Sind, then either MQM will have to risk its survival by remaining silent or it will have to risk its international operations by posing a resistence. In the later case the self exiled leadership may have to face consequences to the extent of deportation.
Hence, while the nation is keeping its fingers crossed to see who the next prime minister will be, MQM might also be keeping its fingers crossed too to see what the future holds for the party…. and this is all despite the victory in elections 2008.